DUNCAN — By The Banner staff

Pandemic flu may not seem like a valid threat today due to advances in modern science and technology, but health experts warn that the threat is still very real and, in fact, overdue.

“Unfortunately, pandemic flu outbreaks historically have occurred every 10 to 40 years, and the last outbreak was (40 years ago) in 1967-68,” said Johnny Foster, Regional Preparedness and Response Nurse with the Oklahoma State Department of Health’s Terrorism Preparedness and Response Service.

Foster was the guest speaker at Thursday’s meeting of Stephens County’s Local Emergency Planning Committee at the Stephens County Fairgrounds.

A pandemic flu differs from the common flu, which strikes between November and April each winter, because it causes a global outbreak of serious illness for which there is no vaccine.

According to world health experts, if it were to happen today 90 million people could become ill. Schools and businesses could be forced to close, temporarily, resulting in hefty economic losses as well as social disruption. Outpatient medical care would increase as much as 50 percent, along with an increase in hospital admissions of one to 10 million. And the number of deaths could range from 200,000 to over a million.

The local effect is hard to predict, said Foster, but business and school closings would be very probable.

“There is no rational basis to believe that the early years of the 21st century will be different than the past. If a pandemic strikes, it will come to Oklahoma,” said Mike Leavitt, Secretary of Oklahoma’s Health and Human Services at a conference last March.

Foster said the recent global concern over the bird (or avian) flu is because many medical experts believe it could become the next pandemic. Only a slight mutation would allow it to jump from species to species, or from human to human, which is does not do now.

Because of the migratory nature of birds and other animals, including jet-setting human beings, a worldwide outbreak could occur, and there is no vaccine to fight it.

“My favorite line from the movie ‘Jurassic Park’ is when Jeff Goldblum’s character says, ‘Life will find a way.’

“Viruses are alive. Mutations occur on a daily basis,” said Foster. “That’s why they’re watching it.

“We don’t want to frighten anyone; this is only an issue because the potential is there.”

Cara Crooks, public health specialist with Oklahoma’s Terrorism Preparedness and Response Service, said the county’s pandemic plan should be divided into four levels: Individual, family, business and county.

She recommended that every family follow the family security packet prepared by the Center for Disease Control and posted on the Web site: www.pandemicflu.gov.

One of the best overall tips, she said, is that people who become ill need to be encouraged to stay home from work and school.

Good hygiene habits, to prevent the spread of germs and prevent infections, are also important, and include frequent hand washing, along with instructions on how to sneeze and cough “properly.”

Also included is a list of items to have on hand for an extended stay at home, including a two-week supply of water, food and prescription medications.

Foster explained the state health department had just finished a “template” for counties to use to begin planning their pandemic strategies at the local level.

It is a small section of a larger, nationwide push toward being prepared for a pandemic, for which President Bush asked for and received nearly $7.1 billion from Congress.

Oklahoma’s allocation for pandemic planning activities was nearly $4 million, which was received from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in two phases last year.

The most recent pandemic, from the late 1960s, was the Hong Kong flu, said Foster. Prior to that, it was the Asian flu in 1957.

Neither compared to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918, during which a half-million people died worldwide.

Foster said in the event of a new pandemic, modern medical science may provide human beings a better chance of survival.

He said general vaccines are being stockpiled by the government, and possible “suspect” viruses like the avian flu are being watched closely around the planet.

People, like viruses, are also living organisms, and like the dinosaurs in the Jurassic Park movies, will fight to survive.

“We will find a way to protect ourselves,” said Foster.

See http://www.pandemicflu.gov for information.